Today, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened high, and then all the three major indexes turned green, the intraday index rebounded slightly, and the red disk of the three major indexes were sorted out in the afternoon, and the index maintained a high consolidation at the end of the day. As of the close, the Prev index rose 0.81% to close at 3533 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.07% to close at 15335 points, and the gem index rose 2.17% to close at 3228 points. Among them, rare earth permanent magnets led the gains, as of the close, long Magnetic Technology, Sichuan Energy Power, Sheng and resources rose by the limit, while most of the other stocks floated red.
Since the beginning of 2021, a number of rare earth stocks have performed excellently. According to statistics, Shenghe Resources has risen by nearly 88%, Minmetals rare earths by 40%, and northern rare earths by nearly 39%.
Prior to this, some leading rare earth permanent magnet companies have disclosed their 2020 performance forecasts, among which Minmetals rare earths are expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 158.52% 240.02% in net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in 2020. Shenghe Resources, Xiamen Tungsten Industry and Ningbo Yunsheng all performed well.
"[special topic of the year] has announced that the performance of rare earth companies has increased in advance. Ningbo has increased by more than twice as much as the prosperity of the industry.
As the largest and best growth downstream of rare earths, the accelerated growth of rare earth magnetic materials will drive a major inflection point in the supply and demand of rare earth praseodymium and neodymium. Anxin Securities believes that from the demand side, the demand for rare earth magnetic materials has entered an era of rapid growth, and new energy vehicles and wind power will bring the main increase in demand for rare earth magnetic materials, with a compound annual growth rate of 35% and 34% respectively in the next five years. It is estimated that by 2025, the total demand for NdFeB is 386000 tons, corresponding to 116000 tons of praseodymium neodymium oxide. On the supply side, overseas mines are close to full production, domestic indicators are strictly controlled, and the increment within 3-5 years is limited. According to our estimation, the current praseodymium-neodymium oxide supply is about 58000 tons, and it is relatively rigid. Compared with the 14% growth of demand CAGR in the next five years, the gap between supply and demand is obvious.
In addition, according to the Zhejiang Securities Research report, the export of rare earth permanent magnet products increased sharply in December compared with the same period last year, indicating that overseas demand may have started: domestic sales of new energy vehicles have continued to rise since the second half of 2020, new wind power installations have increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the implementation of new energy efficiency standards has greatly increased the permeability of rare earth frequency conversion air conditioners. the demand growth of rare earth permanent magnet materials; We judge that with the popularity of novel coronavirus vaccine in 2021, the recovery of manufacturing after the overseas epidemic has been brought under control will continue to drive further growth in demand. Export data have already increased in December, and the start of overseas demand is worth looking forward to.
In January, the overall rare earth market rose significantly, and the quotations of several rare earth varieties rose month-on-month, and the main transactions were concentrated in the middle and first ten days of January. with the approach of the Spring Festival and the suspension of logistics, inquiry and market trading volume declined significantly in late January. In terms of price trends, terbium oxide, metal terbium and yttrium oxide rose at the top, with month-on-month increases of 22.61%, 21.17% and 19.07%, respectively; samarium oxide, europium oxide, metal lanthanum and lanthanum-cerium alloys were quoted unchanged from the previous month; the monthly average price of oxide bait decreased by 1.72% to 168900 yuan / ton.
